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As the U.S. central bank members prepare for their meeting on Wednesday, just a day ago, the likelihood of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut versus a 50bps cut was evenly split at 50-50. Fast forward to today, and the odds are now tipping in favor of a larger 50bps reduction. Predictions from betting market … Read more
The market is holding out hope for a bigger rate cut as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to meet on Wednesday. Predictions from Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest there’s a growing expectation that a 50 basis points reduction could be in play. FOMC Meeting Could See Bigger Rate Cut as Expectations Shift … Read more
With just six days to go before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the likelihood of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut is growing stronger by the day. The possibility of a 50bps cut remains slim, though it still holds a 13% chance, as reported by CME’s Fedwatch tool. Market … Read more
The latest consumer price index (CPI) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that inflation cooled to 2.5% in August, marking the slowest rate since 2021. Meanwhile, core CPI, which strips out the fluctuating food and energy sectors, posted a 0.3% increase for the month. Stocks, Bitcoin, and Gold Unmoved by CPI Data On … Read more
Equities kicked off Friday on a quiet note, with little movement as the latest U.S. labor market report unveiled a softer-than-anticipated addition of 142,000 jobs for August. The data only adds to growing recession concerns, layering on top of several earlier signs hinting at an economic slowdown. Meanwhile, the 10-2 year Treasury yield spread has … Read more
On Sept. 2, 2024, or roughly 16 days before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, an overwhelming majority of the market seems to be predicting the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Sept. 18. The U.S. federal funds rate is currently at 5.25%-5.50%, which … Read more
The prediction market Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest that a rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September is highly likely. However, BCA Research’s chief asset allocation strategist, Garry Evans, argues that even if rates are lowered, it won’t stop a recession in the United States. On the flip side, … Read more
Bitcoin’s price hit $61,838 per coin by 3:45 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, after spending much of the day lingering below the $60,000 mark. The crypto market mirrored the upward movement seen in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which both rallied just before the closing bell. This newfound optimism is largely being credited to the Federal … Read more
On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics rolled out its latest consumer-price index (CPI) report, revealing a 2.9% increase over the past 12 months through July—falling just short of economists’ 3% forecast. This data nudged CME futures metrics upward, reflecting growing market sentiment that the latest BLS figures strengthen the case for a Federal … Read more
Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor and chief economist, has called for an emergency 75 basis point cut in the fed funds rate following a market downturn. He emphasized the necessity of this cut and suggested another rate cut next month to align with the Federal Reserve’s targets on inflation and employment. Siegel warned that failing … Read more
