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Polymarket data revealed a significant drop in the likelihood of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, from 52% to 11%, after it opted to target U.S. bases in Qatar instead. U.S. Warning According to Polymarket data, the odds of Iran following through on its threat to block the Strait of Hormuz before July nosedived from … Read more
After U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Saturday evening that the U.S. had launched successful airstrikes on Iran, trading activity tied to the Middle East conflict on prediction markets lit up like a pinball machine. Gamble of War: Traders Bet on Invasion, Regime Collapse, and Nuclear Deals That same evening, Trump shared that the U.S. … Read more
As of June 17, 2025, at 8 a.m. Eastern time, Israel and Iran remain locked in their fifth straight day of direct military exchange, with both nations continuing missile strikes and air raids. A Polymarket prediction places a 45% probability that the U.S. military will intervene against Iran before July. Prediction Markets Gauge Israel–Iran Showdown, … Read more
Ever since tensions flared between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, markets have seesawed and social media has lit up with fiery takes on the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill.” The clash between the sitting U.S. president and the world’s wealthiest individual has also sent prediction markets into a frenzy. One wager, with $134,277 in action, pegs … Read more
Polymarket has partnered with Elon Musk’s xAI to enable data sharing between their platforms, integrating the prediction marketplace with Grok AI and X content. Grok AI to Contextualize Prediction Markets The partnership, announced on June 6, 2025, connects Polymarket’s prediction markets with xAI’s technology. Grok, xAI’s AI system, will analyze real-time posts from X to … Read more
Polymarket, a decentralized stock market for predictions, is facing a crisis moment. It has alleged governance problems that some very knowledgeable people have suggested are very SERIOUS problems — the kind of problems that could (and an SEC could) make for an unregistered securities offering. Indeed, in recent days, a $7 million bet made on … Read more
Kalshi bettors put the odds of Trump creating a Bitcoin reserve in 2026 at roughly 70%. Go to Source
Coinbase may be required to send certain information related to user accounts to the CFTC in response to a subpoena related to Polymarket. Go to Source
Many news outlets are reporting that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could announce his resignation at a Jan. 6 press conference. Go to Source
According to data, Polymarket experienced its busiest month ever in November, driven largely by the U.S. Presidential Election. However, December’s activity has cooled off, with trading volumes falling below not only November’s peak but also October’s numbers. Additionally, open interest has sharply declined, dropping from nearly $500 million to a current total of $117 million. … Read more
