CME Futures and Polymarket Predict Jumbo 50bps Rate Cut – Will the Fed Deliver?

As the U.S. central bank members prepare for their meeting on Wednesday, just a day ago, the likelihood of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut versus a 50bps cut was evenly split at 50-50. Fast forward to today, and the odds are now tipping in favor of a larger 50bps reduction. Predictions from betting market … Read more

Fedwatch Tool Shows 50-50 Chance for 25bps or 50bps Cut Before FOMC

The market is holding out hope for a bigger rate cut as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to meet on Wednesday. Predictions from Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest there’s a growing expectation that a 50 basis points reduction could be in play. FOMC Meeting Could See Bigger Rate Cut as Expectations Shift … Read more

Fed Rate Decision Looms as Market Predicts 25bps Cut With 87% Probability

With just six days to go before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the likelihood of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut is growing stronger by the day. The possibility of a 50bps cut remains slim, though it still holds a 13% chance, as reported by CME’s Fedwatch tool. Market … Read more

Citi Analysts Predict 8 Weeks of Fed Rate Cuts Starting in September, Powell Seeks Evidence

Analysts from Citi, the American multinational investment bank and financial services corporation, predict the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin reducing rates by September, totaling a 200 basis points (bps) cut over the next eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated on Tuesday that additional progress is required before … Read more

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation Concerns; Outlook Remains ‘Uncertain’

On Wednesday, May 1, 2024, the U.S. Federal Reserve chose to maintain the benchmark interest rates at their highest in 23 years. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members noted that although inflation has subsided, it still “remains elevated.” No Change in Federal Funds Rate; Fed Continues Watchful Eye on Inflation Risks On Wednesday, the … Read more

Markets Tumble as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Diminish

Attention is riveted on the Federal Reserve’s assembly set for May 1, with widespread anticipation that the U.S. central banking authority might lower the federal funds rate at this juncture of the year. Currently, market forecasts suggest a rate reduction is very unlikely, and Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester has expressed her inability to … Read more

Powell: Economy Progresses but Inflation Still ‘Too High’ to Adjust Benchmark Rate

On Wednesday, March 20, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) declared that there will be no change to the federal funds rate for the time being. The committee emphasized its intention not to lower the target rate until there is “greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably” toward the 2% target. Fed Pauses Rate … Read more

Morgan Stanley Strategist Warns of Equities Sell-Off in Response to ‘Hawkish’ Fed Message

On Monday, Morgan Stanley’s equity strategist, Michael Wilson, shared his thoughts on the state of Wall Street. He expressed his belief that a sell-off could be imminent, and that this could occur as a result of U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks on Wednesday. Furthermore, there has been a great deal of conjecture … Read more

US Consumer Price Index Rises 0.1% in March, Annual Inflation up 5% From Last Year

On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which noted that inflation rose 0.1% last month in March and 5% from a year ago. Annual inflation has dropped for nine consecutive months following the nine times the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate. U.S. Inflation Cools … Read more

Economists Expect the Fed to Reveal Another 25bps Rate Hike Before Pausing for the Rest of 2023

After the March rate hike by the Federal Reserve, economists believe that the recent move by Saudi Arabia and several members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut oil production could complicate the central bank’s mission. Additionally, the majority of the market is pricing in another 0.25% increase for the May … Read more