CME Fedwatch

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CME Fedwatch Favors Half-Point Cut Ahead of FOMC Meeting

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In just 40 days, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will gather to decide whether the central bank will lower the benchmark interest rate. This pivotal moment occurs two days after the 2024 U.S. Election Day. As it stands, CME futures data suggests that a half-point reduction is currently viewed as more probable than … Read more

Markets Await Fed Decision: Bitcoin Spikes, Gold Drops, Stocks Wobble

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Bitcoin saw its value leap to $61,331 on Tuesday, just a day before members of the U.S. Federal Reserve convene to discuss a potential rate cut for federal funds. While BTC posted a 5% gain, stock markets exhibited mixed signals, hovering near previous highs, and gold dipped more than half a percent that day. Bitcoin … Read more

Markets Bet Big on a 25bps Fed Rate Cut—Low Odds for a Bigger Reduction

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On Sept. 2, 2024, or roughly 16 days before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, an overwhelming majority of the market seems to be predicting the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Sept. 18. The U.S. federal funds rate is currently at 5.25%-5.50%, which … Read more

Polymarket Bets 10% on 2024 US Recession, Analyst Skeptical of Rate Cut’s Impact

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The prediction market Polymarket and CME’s Fedwatch tool suggest that a rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September is highly likely. However, BCA Research’s chief asset allocation strategist, Garry Evans, argues that even if rates are lowered, it won’t stop a recession in the United States. On the flip side, … Read more

Fedwatch Tool and Polymarket Indicate Strong Odds for September Rate Cut

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Right now, the market is leaning towards the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark interest rate at the Sept. 18, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The CME Fedwatch tool currently indicates a 75% likelihood of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut. Over on Polymarket, bettors are even more confident, showing an 82% chance of … Read more

US Consumer Price Index Rises 0.1% in March, Annual Inflation up 5% From Last Year

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On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which noted that inflation rose 0.1% last month in March and 5% from a year ago. Annual inflation has dropped for nine consecutive months following the nine times the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate. U.S. Inflation Cools … Read more